Imagine a world where your interaction with computers and software is drastically different than it is today. Imagine the concept of “needing” more power for intense computation for visualization, simulation and rendering just vanished. Imagine the day where we look back and can’t believe we actually had those big old desktop machines not only in our offices, but in our homes. That day is coming sooner than we think.
Many people call it many different things. Some people have even taken to being cynical about the word “cloud” computing. Most of these people are the skeptics in the world where change is difficult to accept. These are also the people that avoid early adoption and probably, in most cases, rightfully so. They just aren’t ready. These are also the people that haven’t felt the pain of desperately needing more power, simplifying and compromising their work due to the lack of power at their disposal.
But if you have felt the pain. The answer is often not simple. Those of us that fall into that category don’t simply need another bigger machine. We don’t want the hassle of maintaining and upgrading and being semi-satisfied for a brief period of time before our purchase is now outdated. We need way more than that. We need…….infinite computing.
This is the phrase that Jeff Kowalski, CTO at Autodesk, dropped on us like a bowl of cloudy goodness at #AU2010 this year in Las Vegas. The presentation and delivery was spot-on. Traditional computing will be here for the forseeable future. But this idea of having a lightweight (iPad, netbook, notebook) tool as the viewing device and infinite amount of computing power out there securely in the “cloud” is a totally different way that we think about computing.
According to Kowalski, a mindset change is required for people to grasp the true potential of this idea. There will definitely require a toolset change, but more importantly, people have to be comfortable to look at the source of the problem and embrace that a totally different type of solution may be required. A different mindset will be required. Looking at computing differently. The landscape for computing has changed, therefore, the solution has changed.
Being a die-hard simulation guy where I have felt the pain from the first day I logged into a unix machine, it makes perfect sense to me. I am able to run models on my laptop today, that used to require a cluster of computers 15 years ago. But, it is still not enough, it will never be enough. Models are growing in complexity, in size and people want to push the limits of simulation to the point that it closely matches reality. AND…they want it immediately.
The power of simulation is not only getting an answer, but its getting the optimal answer. In order to achieve that, you have to run multiple what-if scenarios. Running these models in parallel, simultaneously is a simulation guy’s dream. It is 100% obtainable today to do that, but the barrier is computing resources. An infinite computing model breaks down this barrier and changes the mindset of how we think about computing.
Seems simple, right? As with everything in the world, there are some hurdles to getting us there. The two main hurdles are security and pricing. Security is being tackled now by folks like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and the like. It’s not perfect, but it will have to be close to perfect for it to become a reality.
Pricing is a totally different animal. Paying for the compute time is easy, there are models like AWS that are alive and well. But, how do you bundle software into the mix. Paying for hardware and software are two different animals that will have to coexist.
I’m convinced that simulation is the way of the future. We will look back in amazement that it took as long as it did to become mainstream. Infinite computing is one of the biggest breakthroughs and game changers in Simulation. I can’t wait to log-on and uncover the impossible.
This weekend is becoming an annual tradition for me. A mixture of consuming more turkey than humanly possible and prepping for one of the best conferences of the year – Autodesk University. This is my third year in a row and I am as excited as ever. There is something to be said for 1000s of like minded folks gathering in Vegas a few weeks before Christmas. The week is jam packed with more information, buzz and excitement than anyone can handle. The goal is to retain as much of it as possible.
I am fortunate to be attending in two capacities- member of the media to represent this blog and a vendor representing CFdesign. I see the two roles as quite different, but at the same time very similar. I will have my ears wide open and will be taking copious notes to relay my take on the events.
As always, there is a short list of topics I am particularly interested in….
Web-based and Mobile Computing
Clearly, two totally different technologies but I am lumping them together as I think they are very related. They complement each other nicely. Whenever I listen to the Autodesk folks they tend to use the phrase “SaaS” all the time, obviously standing for Software as a Service. From the user community, SaaS is nothing more than a business or licensing model. What I care about from the user side is the flexibility of accessing my data as well as compute power from anywhere, any device, any time. Many of the tools being rolled out to the Labs site look promising. They are being used to educate and show proof of concept. I’m anxious to see one that changes the way we work. If anyone is listening, I have a list of ideas.
Inventor/Fusion Modeling Platform
This may or may not exist as a true product or platform. But, I can’t help but feel that one of the true unique advantages that Autodesk has in the market is a unified modeling system. Inventor is proving itself daily as a true player in the MCAD space. With the integration of Alias and Fusion and AutoCAD it is becoming a unique system that cannot be rivaled by Dassault Systemes or Siemens. Both of these powerhouses have a few solutions, one at the high end, one at the midrange as well as surfacing (ICEM) modeling that seems to be integrated in CATIA, but not SolidWorks. So there is a constant issue of interoperability. Too many tools that do not play nicely with one another, If they cannot share and cannot help drive the process, what’s the benefit?
The Simulation Roadmap to “true” Digital Prototyping
Simulation is still in it’s infancy when it comes to mass adoption. Most companies are far from realizing the true potential of simulation. It will need to be a natural part of the design process, not just a “module” that is added to a CAD seat. If we look at what SolidWorks did with COSMOS in the early days, it’s truly amazing. The number of FEA boxes that were pushed as well as the bundling of CAD and simulation is truly amazing. But ten years later, COSMOS is still viewed as a designer/CAD level tool. DS acquired ABAQUS (rebranded SIMULIA) but the technologies seem to remain separate. Vendors seem to treat designers, engineers and analysts separately. The problem in the engineering community is the lack of interoperability. It’s fine that the tools are developed for the particular user, but when data cannot be shared across the enterprise (or even across the hallway) we are not solving the problem, we are just contributing to it, Autodesk is in a prime spot to change the game in the simulation market. Not easy, but the pieces are falling into place.
Still lots to do before heading out, but the excitement is building. See you in Vegas.
I’ve been on a bit of a rant and tear on forums, blogs and twitter lately defending the big bad “cloud”. Seems that SolidWorks put everyone in a tizzy when they did a “technology preview” showing some of their futuristic works in progress. Joe Dunne, if you are listening- I thought it was killer! Really innovative, really helpful and really pushing the limits. What did you promise me? Nothing! You simply showed some things that are being worked on and what could be possible. You certainly implied that some of it could show up in a web browser near me real soon. Guess what, I can’t wait.
Some really interesting blog posts over at deelip.com with various CAD heavyweights chiming in on the cloud, the greediness of the whole thing and how people will ultimately make irrational choices to change vendors if pushed to the cloud. Are you kidding me? You don’t even know what the concept is because its not real. It’s conceptual at best right now. I’m the first to acknowledge that if they lock you out of your data, can’t provide a secure environment and try to gauge you out of your IP- than by all means, abandon ship!
I get the fact that mechanical engineers are conservative, don’t embrace change and tend to be slow to adopt new technology. Honestly, its to our downfall to do so. Embrace change and new ideas- it’s healthy! You have every right to be a skeptic and insist the ideas need to be proven to you. But, don’t be an old blowhard about it.
I realize I am unique in countless ways. But, I am using the “cloud/web/whatever” everyday to work really, really efficiently. I think many people don’t like to merge work and pleasure. But, ask yourself- ever bank online? Ever order something from amazon? Do you have a gmail or yahoo email account? Dare ask yourself have you ever used facebook, flickr, linkedin, twitter? If so, delete them all because, guess what they are all in the cloud. Not the same thing you might be saying?
How about this. How do you communicate with colleagues in other locations? Webex? Skype? Ever use Jing or screencast.com to share ideas and concepts with others? How do you do virtual design reviews? Ever use Google docs? If not, why? Because Word is “more secure”?? Cheaper?
So let’s turn it back to MCAD/CAE. I wouldn’t jump right into sketching and modeling via the web as an only option. Might be nice to have that choice- but surely, I don’t want to be forced into it. Some possible uses of the cloud..
Suppose edrawings (or something similar) existed in a web browser and better yet, it allowed you to upload and shoot an email or text to someone and they simply entered a password and were spinning your model in real-time. Take it one step further, suppose you could collaborate on the model together, in real time?
How about PDM? Seems logical that people would want to have the option to having the MCAD vendors hosting the vault etc.. It could reduce the IT overhead drastically for one thing. But that exists today, so what else would you want it to do?
Ever have to deal with tech support and have a need to upload your files or show a screen shot or record a video? Wouldn’t it be great to avoid the hassle and work in a secure web environment that you could grant access to your info without having to deal with firewalls, vpn etc?
How about simulation? Feeling good about having FEA/CFD etc loaded on your desktop? Be nice to have unlimited computing power and access to modules that you only need this month.
Ok, I know that I either got you thinking or pissed you off. I completely realize that people aren’t going to embrace this with open arms. But, what I suggest is to think – “how could I leverage the web more?” The more you speak up, the more you help design and guide what the vendors will try and sell you.
Are you sick of hearing about the “cloud” and how its the future? Lots and lots of skepticism with a sprinkle of panic, it seems, about running software as a service. People seem to be worried about some valid points, such as, security, cost, “who owns the data” and a variety of other “things”. Seems to me, that many of the concerns absolutely have to be addressed and are being addressed but why are people still skeptical? Change! The engineering circle is always slow to change. Things must be laid out in a crystal clear fashion or at least have the data to backup the claims.
What’s the benefit to us as a user?
Pay as you go/pay for what you need model. Allows for flexibility on making a capital investment for a piece of technology that is yet to be proven valuable and that is used only some of the time.
Near instant fixes to “problems”. No need to update software or download anymore, its just there and it works.
Access to software from anywhere, from any device on any platform. Freedom to choose what you want, not being dictated what to use by others.
I could go on forever, but even the short list above seems valuable. But the interesting concept is the name “Software as a Service (SaaS)”. I have been thinking about this one lately, what is the “service”? Access to the software? The fact that the software is more accessible, is that really a service?
What if vendors truly provided a “service” along with the software? Instant chatting, file sharing, file storage, project work, implementation, training, additional computing power, real engineering help all via the web? Now things could get interesting. Imagine having the “platinum” package and you have access to a support infrastructure “on-demand”.
Suppose you are in the midst of an engineering project and you want to create a really slick rendering for a proposal, but you never quite got the rendering stuff or better yet, you don’t have access to it with your license. You could log into “the site”, your model is already there and chat with the “service” team and you guys spec it out really quickly what I want. The turn around time could be anywhere from minutes, to hours to over night. Why? The web enables and promotes efficiency. The vendors will have to think this through well enough to be able to support it, but their “services” company can easily be around the clock, around the world. The models are already “up there”. Now its just getting the specifics. Especially if you have a “services” contract built into the cost of the well, service?
Think of how this scales out to automation of processes, SIMULATION, design help, the list is endless. I’d be interested to hear people talk about the service side of it and worry less about the software. At the end of the day, do we want to engineer or do we want to drive software?
I’m going to go on record to state that I’m a huge fan of “the cloud”. They are two words that seem to really send people into a bit of rage lately. People want a definition, they want clarity What is the cloud? Call it what you want, I don’t care, I know what you mean and I want it. I want it now.
I think my friend, “the cloud”, has gotten a bad rap. It definitely took a ribbing at SolidWorks World 2010, where engineers were trying to make a drinking game out of it all. My sense is that its easy to make fun of something that you either don’t quite understand or that you don’t exactly see the value. I suspect its the latter in most cases.
If you have read anything on The Virtual Engineer, you will know that I am a huge fan boy of the good ole “cloud”. What is my definition of the cloud? In very simple terms it is web-enabled, web-based, web-hosted, web-stored, web-collaborated computing. Common theme here, “the web”. We all use it, many of us depend on it and some of are are even slightly addicted to it.
upfront cfd external flow simulaiton
So, why does using the word cloud cause anxiety? I’ve been thinking about this for quite some time, because I clearly don’t get it. Am I the minority? Not sure. But, it dawned on me the other day that I have felt the pain of “the old way”. If you haven’t, I’m not sure you will appreciate the value. The old way is a collage of bloated hard drives, sorry-ass USB external drives, various copies of files, handfuls of thumb drives full of stuff. I’m tired of being a VPNing, remote desktoping, begging for more horse power, tired of ftp-ing slave to status quo. I want a new way. I want to have access to my files, wherever, from whatever- laptop, netbook, iphone. If I want to share my files, I want to be able to send a link to someone with highly encrypted password protected safety. I want to be able to, at a minimum, preview my files in a browser. How can I be the minority? Doesn’t everyone want this?
But, the above is just the tip of it. I’m a simulation driven, upfront CAE doing, design guy. I am drinking a Big Gulp size of the the Kool-Aid. But, you want to talk about pain. I’m not sure there is a better reason today for engineers to openly embrace the cloud than in the simulation community. But not just the simulation community, the “upfront cfd” simulation community. Why?
Design engineers tend to want to try numerous what-if scenarios, resulting in numerous back to back runs that ideally could run around the clock
CFD models are getting bigger and bigger and are requiring more and more power
Every design engineering department on the planet is trying to reduce cost of hardware, minimize capital investment- so paying for what you need, when you need it is a no-brainer
More and more engineers find that they are on the go, out of the office and need access to their data, models, computing power from anywhere
I think we are on the cusp of a major break through in the way we engineer. There are a ton of things that need to be figured out. Security, licensing, bandwidth, hardware etc are simply just the basics that need to be worked out. Exciting to see some of the most talented people in the world working on it.
Gotta admit, this morning’s presentation by Joe Dunne and company on some of the future of SolidWorks development was well worth my trip in itself. All kinds of chatter going on via twitter prior to them taking the stage. There was a big “white” monitor that had a black drape falling off of it as well as a small netbook up on the main stage. Many were anticipating buzz on support for the MAC. But, what we got was way more than that. We are talking full web based, new way of thinking about MCAD, OS agnostic goodness. Pictures say a million words, let’s take a look.
Joe Dunne on main stage with a netbook
Full OS agnostic MCAD (see my buddy on the end?)
The future of MCAD – search/access/reuse
DS is helping drive the cloud with V6????
Sketch objects, search, reuse- really awesome!
multi-touch for engineers
There is so much I can say about what they were showing. Just so spot on with vision and understanding of the problem with really slick innovative solutions. The timeframe is unknown right now, although they promise something with Enovia in 2010. I can speculate what that is, but let’s hang tight and see what they come up with.
Pictures don’t really do it justice. The most exciting part of it all is that this is just the beginning. Things will change in the near future. The biggest change that I am anxious to see worked out is the licensing and access. Companies like salesforce.com are blazing the way based on user login. Over lunch, I heard guys worrying about security. Honestly, this is being worked out in other industries such as CRM and banking, engineering data will follow suit.
BUT, who owns the data? What happens when the cloud goes down? What happens when you are late on a payment? What happens when a storm knocks internet out? All real, relative things that need to be worked out. Glad its these guys taking the lead.
I will point out the obvious and state that 2009 was a brutal year for many. Lots of organizations doing a bit of soul searching and digging in to try and reinvent themselves. Hopefully!
Those of us in the CAE or CAD industry are no different. Even though business has been slower than normal, the expectations have never been higher. It is interesting that many organizations went quiet for many months, but they are beginning to show their faces and have some big, big plans. Let’s take a look at some of the big topics of 2009.
Direct Modeling Wars
This has been one of the bigger topics to hit the MCAD market in five years. The boys at SpaceClaim broke onto the market preaching the concept as the next thing since sliced bread. Interestingly, they took a fair amount of criticism from the “traditional” parametric fanatics. But 2009, has seen all of the major MCAD vendors jump on the push/pull bandwagon. Some have gone all in and some have integrated direct modeling on top of the parametric based system.
Autodesk has Fusion.
Siemens has Synchronous Technology
PTC has CoCreate
SpaceClaim takes it to the next level with multi-touch.
The reality is that I don’t believe we have seen even the beginning of where this technology will take the engineering community. I don’t think anyone questions that there are obvious benefits to being able to sculpt and modify geometry from anywhere. The concept is still fairly new and a bit too disruptive for mass adoption. I suspect that the next year we will see some big things in this arena.
Upfront Simulation
A topic that has been near and dear to my heart for the last 12 years. I have been a believer from the beginning. Seems so simple. Leverage your existing 3D model, simulate upfront early in the design phase repetitively, until the optimal design is obtained and then physically test it to validate. Reduces the design cycle, reduces failure in the field etc. But this concept is still slow to be adopted.
We have seen a number of big advancements in this field this year. Both Solid Edge and Inventor have embedded FEA solutions. The bigger news is that both Siemens and Autodesk have much broader plans when it comes to simulation, well beyond a simple embedded solution. They are both a number of years behind Pro/Mechanica and the boys at SolidWorks, but clearly will expose this concept to a whole pool of new engineers.
CFD is now becoming a household name. It used to be the scary term that only the geekiest of the geeks was able to discuss. But we are seeing that it is the fastest growing market in CAE. ANSYS confirmed it and transformed themselves from a hardcore structural simulation company into a CFD house with the acquisition of Fluent.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we at CFdesign, are changing the way people interact with CFD. We continue to target design engineers and have proven time and time again that CFD can help reduce physical prototypes, save failures in the field and increase innovation. But, more importantly, it can be driven by design folks and doesn’t have to be an analyst only tool. The introduction of the multi-scenario design study environment opens the flood gates to what design engineers can do with CFD.
Goliath Acquisitions
Feels like a giant love fest that everyone is buying everyone. What used to be a fairly broad landscape of small software companies is now narrowing itself down to a few behemoths. ANSYS has established themselves as the one stop shop simulation powerhouse. So far so good with regards to their position in the market (stock price-wise), but they have a long rode ahead. Keeping the dedicated user base of each acquisition happy is no simple feat. This extends way beyond the stock price. If you are not careful, you risk pissing off your dedicated user base and are now a bloated has-been. Time will tell.
Autodesk is also making a serious move into simulation with the acquisition of Algor and Moldflow. Interesting combination to say the least– complete ends of the spectrum. But in perfect Autodesk fashion, nothing happens without a well calculated plan. From my perspective, the integration seems slow, but talking to some of the higher ups at Autodesk, they feel to be “right on track”. After speaking with some of the dedicated users at #AU2009, I’d say their assessment isn’t far off.
Dassault appears to be playing a chess game of late. They are making very slow, but allegedly strategic moves. I am referring to DS as a whole. I think the boys at SW are always raising the bar. But the bigger V6 initiative has me perplexed. Conceptually, I think I get it and think it has some potential, but I’ll be damned if I can explain exactly what it is. I’d post a You Tube video that explains it, but couldn’t find one that made sense. If you are listening DS, I’d be happy to do a review of V6, but need someone to explain it to me. I’m sure its me.
Apple jumps into the Game
Tons and tons of buzz about who supports the Apple platform. Initially, I thought it was a bunch of hype, but seems like everyone is getting into the game. Macs were everywhere at #AU2009, lots of buzz at PLM World and I’m anxious to see the reaction at #SWW2010.
I have to admit, I am skeptical. I think Apple puts out some nice products and they are really riding the wave pretty well. But the engineering community is a whole different breed, they tend to be slow to become fanboys. Sure, there are exceptions, but the price of the hardware for Apple may be its downfall in mass adoption in engineering companies. I predict that we will see slow (perhaps steady) adoption by the early adopter/power user types, that’s about it for now.
Cloudy Forecast
Seems like everyone is gearing up for the “cloud”. It is on everyone’s radar, but few have jumped into the deep end. As I reported from #AU2009, Carl Bass was as direct as any exec I have seen on where it plays into the big picture.
Seems logical that we will see this as one of the faster growing trends in CAE. The big question will be where will it stick. Data management and collaboration seem like no-brainers. But, being on the simulation side of the house, I suspect computing power will be the biggest bang for the buck. The challenge here is user experience. Everyone will agree that running on a cluster in the cloud is faster, but the implementation of it sucks right now. Bandwidth is finally becoming reliable, but thinking of having “power” in the sky isn’t part of the mainstream workflow. I think this will change big time in the near future.
Mobile Engineering
No doubt the iphone has changed the way people think of mobile computing. It seemed like the thing to do in 2009, to rush out and create an iphone app for your product. Dassault did it. Autodesk did it.
Initially, I thought it was fad over function. But, I think it will play more and more of a role in our engineering lives. Probably not in the form that it exists today, but the fact is people are attached to their phones more now than ever. They will no doubt be a natural extension in the CAE space.
The potential is endless. Obviously, the sketching tools and accessing drawings will be a standard. But interacting with simulation will be critical. Models will only be getting larger and the more the computing is being pushed to the cloud, the more the need to monitor, interact and publish the raw data will grow.
Social Media is here to stay
Yes, even engineers are tweeting and blogging and even facebooking. Seems very non-engineering of us to be so social. But, I am convinced that the adoption of the tools will continue to grow. Maybe, not the tools as we see them today, but there isn’t a more diverse, opinionated, knowledge craving group than engineers.
PTC went so far to coin the phrase, “Social Product Development“. I know there are quite a number of eyes rolling, but I don’t think they are far off the mark. Conceptually, that is, implementation will be key.
As many of you know, I am a big fan of twitter, facebook, linkedin, flickr and you tube (see side bar for links). It is more than a fad for me, its part of my personal and professional life. The key is simply being plugged in and connected with those around me. The challenge is wading through the bullshit when it comes to social media. Many are overwhelmed, don’t know where to start and couldn’t be bothered. What do I say to them? Take the time, expand your comfort zone and see what is out there. You might be surprised that there are tools out there that can actually help you stay current and communicate with a world that you would otherwise not know exists. Check out Jeff’s @lifeupfront’s take on it.
Conclusion
This is only a small slice of what happened in 2009. The exciting part is that many of these topics are fairly new in our world. CAE has been on the steady climb over the last few years with performance and user experience. These topics are still growing leaps and bounds, but they are now just expected. The real game changers are the ones that are thinking outside the box, beyond our comfort zones. Personally, I am perfectly ok with that.
My sense is that its easy to make fun of something that you either don’t quite understand or that you don’t exactly see the value. I suspect its the latter in most cases.
